A Snapshot of My Forex Trading System's Results

A while back I posted these charts showing the backtested performance of my forex trading system. I've made a number of changes to the EUR/USD system since then, so I thought I'd post an update on its results. Here's a chart of the new and improved system's results over 46 months of testing on historical data going back to September, 2002. Keep in mind only the last 10% or so are the results of real trades; the rest are theoretical trades stretching back long before I'd even heard of forex.



The vertical axis shows number of pips: 1.5 = 15,000 pips, 2 = 20,000 pips, etc. (Click the image for a clearer view.)

During this time the system would have placed 418 long trades and 385 short trades. Total long profits were 10,485 pips, total short profits were 7,754 pips. Shave off about 2000 pips for the spread (probably a high estimate) and you come out with over 16,000 pips in profits, or about 350 pips a month.

Both long and short predictions had a success rate of over 60%: 66.75% for long trades, 63.64% for short trades.

Average gain for a long trade was 25 pips. Average gain for a short trade was 20 pips.

The system combines over 50 different trading variables to generate its predictions. These were narrowed down from hundreds of potential signals via testing and retesting, and then combined in the right "recipe" through still more testing. Hopefully real results over the next four years will look as good!

Related topic:
Charts of My Trading System Results